Posted by: Namar | April 6, 2012

Democracy in action: Let’s Make A Deal

The first integrated audience in t.v. game show history was Monty hall’s Let’s Make a Deal. Not only did the show include people of different colors, but also sizes and shapes. You no longer had to be a slim white person to be on network t.v. Let’s Make a Deal changed that.

A representative audience

And the game itself was a free market bizarre. Bait and switch; boom or bust. And the Big Deal of the Day lead to a famous, regularly debated logic problem, known far and wide as The Monty Hall problem

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?” (Parade Magazine , September 1990).

Many people initially reason that with only two doors left, the probability should be 1/2 that the car is behind No. 1. However, if you assume that the host knew where the car was, and was obliged to open a door with a goat, then the probability is actually 1/3 that the car is behind No. 1. To see this, note that at the outset, the probability is 1/3 that the car is behind No. 1. Since at least one of the other two doors has a goat, the host has revealed nothing about the contents of No. 1. Thus the probability of 1/3 for door No. 1 remains unchanged.

An alternate explanation appears here:

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